Economic Outlook and Population Outlook

Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2024-2029

View Fall 2024 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook 2024-2029

Calgary & Region Economic Outlook

The City of Calgary monitors and forecasts key indicators for the local economy and publishes the results twice a year in the spring and the fall. These forecasts assist the municipal government in its financial and physical planning for Calgary.

Calgary’s economy is expected to grow faster than the national economy as improved market accessibility and better transportation capability improve the cash flow of the energy sector and boost local and provincial economies. Elevated housing demand within the region should drive investment intentions in construction.

A more favourable financing environment and a larger consumer base should boost household consumption and encourage business investment, as these are two significant economic drivers that contribute to economic growth.

We do not expect a significant recovery in the Calgary Economic Region’s unemployment rate as the economy is not expanding enough to absorb the influx of job seekers. The unemployment rate will likely understate the scarcity of jobs due to the number of people who have settled for part-time jobs while still looking for full-time work. However, labour cost growth in Calgary remains elevated, with uneven distribution across industries and occupations.

Publications on Calgary & Region Economic Outlook

Population Outlook

Population Outlook is updated in June 2024 and published in our Spring 2024 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook.

Population Outlook Forecasts

Forecast Tables from Spring 2024 Calgary and Region Population Outlook 2024-2029

Table 1 - City of Calgary Population Projection

(thousands of persons)
  2019 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Total Population (as of April 1) 1,285.7 1,307.0 1,321.6 1,347.8 1,422.8 1,491.9 1,523.2 1,544.5 1,566.2 1,588.1 1,608.7
Total Population Growth Rate (April - March) 1.4 1.7 1.1 2.0 5.6 4.9 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3
Total Net Migration (April - March) 9.6 12.3 6.1 19.1 67.3 61.0 23.6 13.8 14.6 15.4 14.5
Total Births (April - March) 15.3 15.6 15.8 15.2 15.6 16.4 16.2 16.3 16.1 16.0 15.9
Total Deaths (April - March) 6.5 6.6 7.4 8.0 7.8 8.3 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.8
Total Natural Increase (April - March) 8.8 9.0 8.4 7.2 7.7 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.0 6.6 6.1
Total Households (as of April 1) 489.1 496.7 502.4 512.5 541.2 567.7 579.8 588.2 596.6 605.2 613.3
Total Household Formation (April - March) 6.3 7.7 5.6 10.1 28.7 26.5 12.1 8.3 8.5 8.6 8.1

* Estimate (no Civic Census)

(thousands of persons)
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2019 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
0-4 79.7 79.6 79.0 79.0 80.9 82.1 83.4 83.0 83.8 84.4 83.9
5-9 80.0 79.3 81.5 82.1 84.8 87.9 88.6 88.6 87.9 87.7 87.6
10-14 74.6 77.0 77.8 79.9 84.3 88.0 90.2 91.2 91.7 91.7 92.3
15-19 70.9 70.8 72.6 74.9 81.4 85.9 86.9 88.9 90.3 92.1 93.7
20-24 78.2 78.9 79.7 80.7 90.6 99.4 95.4 94.4 94.8 94.9 94.8
25-29 98.1 97.4 97.3 97.1 105.7 114.7 110.1 110.1 109.4 109.2 109.2
30-34 113.0 113.8 114.3 114.7 123.3 129.4 126.3 125.3 124.7 123.0 122.5
35-39 110.8 115.8 114.8 117.8 124.9 132.2 134.4 134.8 135.2 136.3 135.3
40-44 98.2 101.8 102.8 106.2 113.1 120.4 125.3 129.2 132.3 134.5 136.9
45-49 91.3 93.2 93.9 95.8 99.1 101.9 107.5 111.1 115.0 119.1 123.3
50-54 83.9 84.0 86.5 86.8 87.1 89.2 94.4 96.2 98.5 101.4 103.6
55-59 83.2 83.1 83.9 84.4 84.2 83.5 86.6 87.0 87.7 88.2 90.6
60-64 72.1 73.9 74.9 77.0 79.5 81.3 83.9 84.2 84.7 84.9 84.5
65-69 52.5 55.2 56.4 60.2 64.1 68.1 73.0 75.9 77.8 79.9 81.4
70-74 37.8 40.2 41.2 43.4 47.3 51.6 54.7 57.1 60.5 63.5 66.5
75-79 24.9 25.8 26.9 28.8 31.6 33.5 37.2 40.1 42.2 45.0 48.2
80-84 17.6 17.9 18.5 19.4 20.3 21.5 22.9 24.2 25.8 27.7 28.8
85-89 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.3 12.5 13.0 13.9 14.0 14.7 15.1 15.9
90-99 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.8 8.3 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.4
100+ 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Total

1,285.7

1,307.0

1,321.6

1,347.8

1,422.8

1,491.9

1,523.2

1,544.5

1,566.2

1,588.1

1,608.7

* Estimate (no Civic Census)

(thousands of persons)
Age 2019 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Youth (12-17 inclusive) 85.1 86.7 89.1 91.5 98.1 103.9 106.3 107.8 109.6 111.3 112.1
Primary School Age (6-17 inclusive) 180.7 182.9 186.2 190.5 201.1 209.9 213.5 215.4 217.6 218.4 218.6
Working Age (15-64 inclusive) 899.7 912.7 920.6 935.3 989.1 1,038.0 1,050.8 1,061.4 1,072.5 1,083.8 1,094.4
Seniors 65+ 151.6 158.4 162.7 171.6 183.7 195.9 210.2 220.3 230.2 240.5 250.5
Super Seniors 85+ 18.9 19.3 19.8 19.8 20.4 21.2 22.5 23.0 23.9 24.5 25.6
Female Super Seniors 85+ 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.3 14.0 14.3 14.9 15.1 15.8

Average Age

37.5

37.7

37.8

38.0

37.8

37.8

38.3

38.6

38.8

39.1

39.4

* Estimate (no Civic Census)

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

Table 2 - Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) Population Projection

FORECAST COMPLETED: June 2024

(thousands of persons)
  2019 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Total Population (as of July 1) 1,503.3 1,528.3 1,540.2 1,586.7 1,682.5 1,770.9 1,822.8 1,866.3 1,907.5 1,947.8 1,989.1
Total Population Growth Rate
(July 1 - June 30) 		1.9 1.7 0.8 3.0 6.0 5.3 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
Total Net Migration (July-June) 14.7 20.9 19.3 7.7 42.2 45.1 31.8 25.5 22.7 23.2 23.9
Net Migration 18-24 (July-June) 17.5 14.4 6.9 30.0 60.2 59.8 29.0 26.4 27.8 27.7 27.8
Net Migration 28-40 (July-June) 2.6 3.9 -0.4 8.5 27.9 19.5 12.9 7.2 3.6 3.1 4.1
Total Births (July-June) 17.3 17.0 16.7 16.5 16.7 18.6 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.1
Total Deaths (July-June) 7.3 7.8 8.5 8.6 9.0 9.4 9.9 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.7
Total Natural Increase (July-June) 10.0 9.2 8.2 7.9 7.7 9.1 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.4

* Estimate (no Civic Census)

(thousands of persons)
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2019 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
0-4 91.4 90.7 88.2 87.9 89.0 90.8 92.3 94.8 98.1 102.1 104.7
5-9 93.9 94.4 95.1 97.5 101.6 104.7 104.6 103.2 101.6 99.7 99.8
10-14 90.9 93.9 95.4 98.0 101.8 105.2 107.1 109.4 111.5 112.8 113.5
15-19 84.9 86.4 87.0 91.6 97.6 105.7 109.2 111.8 113.7 114.9 116.1
20-24 93.8 95.1 94.4 97.7 105.6 116.9 121.2 122.7 124.2 126.0 128.3
25-29 111.3 109.0 106.7 110.3 123.3 136.2 142.2 145.1 146.5 147.9 149.3
30-34 127.7 128.5 126.2 128.7 140.6 149.3 152.0 155.2 159.0 162.4 165.8
35-39 128.7 131.4 132.4 135.8 145.3 153.3 158.3 161.7 164.2 167.0 169.1
40-44 114.1 117.0 120.0 125.3 135.4 144.5 151.0 155.8 159.3 162.2 165.6
45-49 106.2 107.6 107.8 109.9 115.2 120.0 124.9 130.8 137.3 144.0 150.2
50-54 96.0 96.6 98.9 101.7 105.5 106.7 108.3 109.5 111.8 115.1 119.7
55-59 96.9 97.2 95.8 94.9 95.7 95.2 95.7 98.2 101.1 103.2 104.8
60-64 86.0 88.8 90.4 92.2 95.1 96.3 96.1 95.1 94.0 93.5 93.4
65-69 64.1 67.8 71.9 76.8 82.1 86.4 89.4 91.5 92.9 94.0 94.9
70-74 46.6 50.3 53.1 55.5 59.2 63.9 68.1 72.7 77.1 80.9 84.1
75-79 29.4 31.1 33.1 36.9 41.1 44.9 48.7 51.9 54.0 56.6 60.1
80-84 20.1 20.6 21.4 22.5 24.2 26.1 28.0 29.9 33.2 36.2 39.0
85-89 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.4 17.2 18.3 19.4
90-99 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.9 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.5 10.8
100+ 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4

Total

1,503.3

1,528.3

1,540.2

1,586.7

1,682.5

1,770.9

1,822.8

1,866.3

1,907.5

1,947.8

1,989.1

Average Age

38.1

37.7

38.0

38.2

38.2

38.1

38.3

38.4

38.6

38.8

39.0

* Estimate (no Civic Census)

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

Table 3 - Calgary Economic Region (CER) Population Projection

FORECAST COMPLETED: June 2024

(thousands of persons)
  2019 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Total Population (as of July 1) 1,614.8 1,640.6 1,652.9 1,700.1 1,797.6 1,888.0 1,941.3 1,986.1 2,028.2 2,069.5 2,111.6
Total Population Growth Rate
(July 1 - June 30) 		1.8 1.6 0.7 2.9 5.7 5.0 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0
Total Net Migration (July-June) 20.7 18.7 6.6 39.4 89.9 81.5 43.6 35.2 32.7 32.0 33.1
Total Births (July-June) 18.3 17.9 17.6 17.4 17.5 19.3 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.9
Total Deaths (July-June) 8.0 8.6 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.4 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.4 12.9
Total Natural Increase (July-June) 10.2 9.4 8.3 7.8 7.6 9.0 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.2 9.0

* Estimate (no Civic Census)

(thousands of persons)
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2019 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
0-4 97.2 96.4 93.6 93.2 94.3 96.7 98.4 100.8 103.6 107.1 109.5
5-9 101.0 101.4 102.0 104.4 108.6 112.0 112.0 110.6 109.1 107.3 107.3
10-14 98.9 101.9 103.3 106.0 109.7 113.5 115.5 118.0 120.1 121.3 122.0
15-19 92.0 93.6 94.5 99.4 105.6 113.4 117.1 119.9 122.2 123.6 124.8
20-24 99.4 100.5 99.7 103.1 111.3 121.4 125.2 127.0 129.2 131.8 134.6
25-29 116.6 114.2 111.7 115.3 128.3 140.9 146.4 148.8 149.9 151.2 152.7
30-34 133.8 134.6 132.1 134.5 146.6 155.7 158.6 161.9 165.4 168.6 171.7
35-39 136.0 138.6 139.4 142.6 152.0 160.1 165.2 168.8 171.6 174.5 176.7
40-44 121.7 124.7 127.8 132.9 143.0 151.7 157.9 162.6 166.2 169.1 172.6
45-49 113.8 115.2 115.3 117.5 122.8 127.7 132.6 138.4 144.6 151.0 157.1
50-54 103.5 104.1 106.5 109.3 113.1 114.5 116.1 117.4 119.8 123.1 127.6
55-59 105.5 105.5 103.9 102.7 103.3 102.8 103.4 106.0 109.0 111.2 112.7
60-64 94.2 97.2 98.8 100.8 103.7 105.2 105.0 103.7 102.3 101.4 101.2
65-69 70.7 74.9 79.4 84.6 90.3 95.0 98.3 100.6 102.0 103.2 104.0
70-74 52.1 56.1 59.2 61.8 65.7 70.8 75.6 80.6 85.3 89.4 92.8
75-79 32.9 34.9 37.2 41.5 45.9 50.2 54.3 57.8 60.0 62.8 66.6
80-84 22.2 22.9 23.9 25.1 27.1 29.2 31.3 33.6 37.1 40.6 43.7
85-89 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.7 17.4 18.3 19.2 20.5 21.8
90-99 8.4 9.2 9.1 9.6 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.8
100+ 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total

1,614.8

1,641.0

1,652.9

1,700.1

1,797.6

1,888.0

1,941.3

1,986.1

2,028.2

2,069.5

2,111.6

Average Age

38.3

38.0

38.3

38.4

38.5

38.4

38.5

38.7

38.9

39.1

39.3

* Estimate (no Civic Census)

Numbers may not add up due to rounding.

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For general inquiries, please email: Corporate.Economics@calgary.ca

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