Economic Outlook and Population Outlook
Calgary & Region Economic Outlook
The City of Calgary monitors and forecasts key indicators for the local economy and publishes the results twice a year in the spring and the fall. These forecasts assist the municipal government in its financial and physical planning for Calgary.
Calgary’s economy should outpace the national economy as commodity prices and oil and gas investments insulate Alberta from macroeconomic headwinds. In addition, the demand for housing to accommodate the number people moving the city should drive an expansion in construction.
Current market sentiment indicates that the Bank of Canada will likely start lowering the overnight rate in the second half of the year. This should contribute to residential investments and further tighten resale markets.
We expect the Calgary Economic Region’s unemployment rate to rise in 2024 as net migration surpasses the number of job openings. Labour cost growth in Calgary remains elevated, with uneven distribution across industries and occupations, which indicate higher costs for both private and public sectors.
Publications on Calgary & Region Economic Outlook
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2023-2028: Fall 2023
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2023-2028: Spring 2023
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2022-2027: Fall 2022
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2022-2027: Spring 2022
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2021-2026: Fall 2021
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2021-2026: Spring 2021
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2020-2025: Fall 2020
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2020-2025: Spring 2020
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2019-2024: Fall 2019
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2019-2024: Spring 2019
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2018-2023: Fall 2018
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2018-2023: Spring 2018
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2017-2026: Fall 2017
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2017-2022: Spring 2017
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2016-2021: Fall 2016
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2015-2020: Fall 2015
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2015-2020: Spring 2015
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2014-2019: Fall 2014
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2014-2024: Spring 2014
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2013-2018: Fall 2013
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2013-2018: Spring 2013
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2012-2017: Fall 2012
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2012-2017: Spring 2012
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2011-2016: Second Quarter 2011
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2011-2016: First Quarter 2011
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2010-2015: Fourth Quarter 2010
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2010-2015: Second Quarter 2010
- Calgary & Region Economic Outlook 2010-2015: First Quarter 2010
- Calgary's Economic Outlook Fourth Quarter 2009
- Calgary's Economic Outlook Second Quarter 2009
- Calgary's Economic Outlook First Quarter 2009
Population Outlook
Population Outlook is updated in June 2024 and published in our Spring 2024 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook.
Population Outlook Forecasts
Forecast Tables from Spring 2024 Calgary and Region Population Outlook 2024-2029
Table 1 - City of Calgary Population Projection
FORECAST COMPLETED: June 2024
2019 | 2020* | 2021* | 2022* | 2023* | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(as of April 1) |
Total
Population 1,285.7 | 1,307.0 | 1,321.6 | 1,347.8 | 1,422.8 | 1,491.9 | 1,523.2 | 1,544.5 | 1,566.2 | 1,588.1 | 1,608.7 |
(April - March) |
Total
Population Growth Rate 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Total Net Migration (April - March) | 9.6 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 19.1 | 67.3 | 61.0 | 23.6 | 13.8 | 14.6 | 15.4 | 14.5 |
(April - March) |
Total Births
15.3 | 15.6 | 15.8 | 15.2 | 15.6 | 16.4 | 16.2 | 16.3 | 16.1 | 16.0 | 15.9 |
(April - March) |
Total Deaths
6.5 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 9.8 |
Total Natural Increase (April - March) | 8.8 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 6.1 |
(as of April 1) |
Total Households 489.1 | 496.7 | 502.4 | 512.5 | 541.2 | 567.7 | 579.8 | 588.2 | 596.6 | 605.2 | 613.3 |
(April - March) |
Total
Household Formation 6.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 28.7 | 26.5 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 8.1 |
* Estimate (no Civic Census)
Population by 5-year Cohorts | 2019 | 2020* | 2021* | 2022* | 2023* | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0-4 | 79,724 | 79,575 | 78,984 | 78,971 | 80,906 | 82,105 | 83,399 | 83,045 | 83,791 | 84,360 | 83,940 |
5-9 | 80,044 | 79,312 | 81,454 | 82,118 | 84,846 | 87,937 | 88,623 | 88,599 | 87,916 | 87,689 | 87,575 |
10-14 | 74,612 | 76,972 | 77,809 | 79,891 | 84,288 | 87,994 | 90,159 | 91,177 | 91,731 | 91,681 | 92,285 |
15-19 | 70,911 | 70,827 | 72,582 | 74,890 | 81,394 | 85,934 | 86,898 | 88,924 | 90,285 | 92,119 | 93,712 |
20-24 | 78,169 | 78,878 | 79,698 | 80,657 | 90,627 | 99,382 | 95,422 | 94,421 | 94,765 | 94,915 | 94,845 |
25-29 | 98,105 | 97,394 | 97,297 | 97,096 | 105,704 | 114,705 | 110,150 | 110,132 | 109,362 | 109,232 | 109,202 |
30-34 | 113,031 | 113,830 | 114,337 | 114,734 | 123,300 | 129,402 | 126,283 | 125,338 | 124,746 | 123,050 | 122,475 |
35-39 | 110,847 | 115,791 | 114,759 | 117,816 | 124,933 | 132,188 | 134,418 | 134,761 | 135,206 | 136,343 | 135,311 |
40-44 | 98,214 | 101,821 | 102,774 | 106,159 | 113,121 | 120,443 | 125,254 | 129,238 | 132,295 | 134,474 | 136,918 |
45-49 | 91,303 | 93,165 | 93,882 | 95,764 | 99,095 | 101,881 | 107,483 | 111,088 | 114,980 | 119,109 | 123,303 |
50-54 | 83,902 | 83,984 | 86,454 | 86,846 | 87,131 | 89,240 | 94,431 | 96,238 | 98,482 | 101,450 | 103,561 |
55-59 | 83,200 | 83,109 | 83,898 | 84,355 | 84,245 | 83,508 | 86,572 | 87,048 | 87,672 | 88,235 | 90,581 |
60-64 | 72,061 | 73,918 | 74,897 | 76,978 | 79,542 | 81,269 | 83,935 | 84,245 | 84,712 | 84,878 | 84,482 |
65-69 | 52,479 | 55,220 | 56,413 | 60,182 | 64,140 | 68,119 | 72,958 | 75,905 | 77,795 | 79,885 | 81,429 |
70-74 | 37,777 | 40,157 | 41,191 | 43,410 | 47,341 | 51,612 | 54,689 | 57,061 | 60,524 | 63,463 | 66,536 |
75-79 | 24,866 | 25,823 | 26,866 | 28,814 | 31,573 | 33,451 | 37,186 | 40,138 | 42,181 | 45,016 | 48,191 |
80-84 | 17,569 | 17,912 | 18,500 | 19,366 | 20,269 | 21,545 | 22,862 | 24,153 | 25,793 | 27,685 | 28,820 |
85-89 | 11,825 | 11,972 | 12,326 | 12,328 | 12,522 | 13,024 | 13,913 | 14,001 | 14,712 | 15,120 | 15,864 |
90-99 | 6,794 | 7,053 | 7,107 | 7,151 | 7,532 | 7,826 | 8,265 | 8,712 | 8,901 | 9,067 | 9,382 |
100+ | 278 | 308 | 330 | 314 | 324 | 309 | 302 | 302 | 302 | 304 | 312 |
Total | 1,285.7 | 1,307.0 | 1,321.6 | 1,347.8 | 1,422.8 | 1,491.9 | 1,523.2 | 1,544.5 | 1,566.2 | 1,588.1 | 1,608.7 |
* Estimate (no Civic Census)
Age | 2019 | 2020* | 2021* | 2022* | 2023* | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Youth (12-17 inclusive) | 85.1 | 86.7 | 89.1 | 91.5 | 98.1 | 103.9 | 106.3 | 107.8 | 109.6 | 111.3 | 112.1 |
Primary School Age (6-17 inclusive) | 180.7 | 182.9 | 186.2 | 190.5 | 201.1 | 209.9 | 213.5 | 215.4 | 217.6 | 218.4 | 218.6 |
Working Age (15-64 inclusive) | 899.7 | 912.7 | 920.6 | 935.3 | 989.1 | 1,038.0 | 1,050.8 | 1,061.4 | 1,072.5 | 1,083.8 | 1,094.4 |
Seniors 65+ | 151.6 | 158.4 | 162.7 | 171.6 | 183.7 | 195.9 | 210.2 | 220.3 | 230.2 | 240.5 | 250.5 |
Super Seniors 85+ | 18.9 | 19.3 | 19.8 | 19.8 | 20.4 | 21.2 | 22.5 | 23.0 | 23.9 | 24.5 | 25.6 |
Female Super Seniors 85+ | 12.0 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 14.0 | 14.3 | 14.9 | 15.1 | 15.8 |
Numbers may not add up due to rounding | |||||||||||
Average Age | 37.5 | 37.7 | 37.8 | 38.0 | 37.8 | 37.8 | 38.3 | 38.6 | 38.8 | 39.1 | 39.4 |
* Estimate (no Civic Census) |
* Estimate (no Civic Census)
Numbers may not add up due to rounding
Table 2 - Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) Population Projection
FORECAST COMPLETED: June 2024
2019 | 2020* | 2021* | 2022* | 2023* | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Population (as of July 1) | 1,503.3 | 1,528.3 | 1,540.2 | 1,586.7 | 1,682.5 | 1,770.9 | 1,822.8 | 1,866.3 | 1,907.5 | 1,947.8 | 1,989.1 |
(July 1 - June 30) |
Total
Population Growth Rate 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
Total Net Migration (July-June) | 14.7 | 20.9 | 19.3 | 7.7 | 42.2 | 45.1 | 31.8 | 25.5 | 22.7 | 23.2 | 23.9 |
Net Migration 18-24 (July-June) | 17.5 | 14.4 | 6.9 | 30.0 | 60.2 | 59.8 | 29.0 | 26.4 | 27.8 | 27.7 | 27.8 |
Net Migration 28-40 (July-June) | 2.6 | 3.9 | -0.4 | 8.5 | 27.9 | 19.5 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
Total Births (July-June) | 17.3 | 17.0 | 16.7 | 16.5 | 16.7 | 18.6 | 19.8 | 20.2 | 20.5 | 20.8 | 21.1 |
Total Deaths (July-June) | 7.3 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 11.7 |
Total Natural Increase (July-June) | 10.0 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 9.4 |
Population by 5-year Cohorts | 2019 | 2020* | 2021* | 2022* | 2023* | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0-4 | 90,726 | 88,222 | 87,940 | 88,982 | 90,757 | 92,301 | 94,817 | 98,055 | 102,062 | 104,744 | |
5-9 | 94,376 | 95,056 | 97,534 | 101,631 | 104,693 | 104,582 | 103,158 | 101,601 | 99,747 | 99,782 | |
10-14 | 93,856 | 95,376 | 98,011 | 101,779 | 105,216 | 107,061 | 109,432 | 111,489 | 112,782 | 113,546 | |
15-19 | 86,435 | 87,031 | 91,566 | 97,580 | 105,680 | 109,209 | 111,816 | 113,732 | 114,937 | 116,125 | |
20-24 | 95,116 | 94,413 | 97,736 | 105,619 | 116,892 | 121,173 | 122,711 | 124,217 | 126,015 | 128,257 | |
25-29 | 108,997 | 106,662 | 110,296 | 123,347 | 136,185 | 142,220 | 145,114 | 146,537 | 147,856 | 149,289 | |
30-34 | 128,513 | 126,202 | 128,664 | 140,648 | 149,271 | 152,010 | 155,246 | 158,963 | 162,418 | 165,848 | |
35-39 | 131,384 | 132,358 | 135,776 | 145,282 | 153,332 | 158,317 | 161,723 | 164,240 | 167,047 | 169,089 | |
40-44 | 117,002 | 120,023 | 125,284 | 135,357 | 144,469 | 151,015 | 155,777 | 159,329 | 162,184 | 165,591 | |
45-49 | 107,624 | 107,782 | 109,947 | 115,154 | 119,958 | 124,850 | 130,804 | 137,347 | 144,028 | 150,172 | |
50-54 | 96,588 | 98,936 | 101,748 | 105,453 | 106,668 | 108,256 | 109,517 | 111,834 | 115,118 | 119,671 | |
55-59 | 97,170 | 95,790 | 94,925 | 95,734 | 95,221 | 95,687 | 98,168 | 101,094 | 103,220 | 104,804 | |
60-64 | 88,761 | 90,360 | 92,229 | 95,139 | 96,297 | 96,132 | 95,133 | 94,037 | 93,479 | 93,443 | |
65-69 | 67,799 | 71,879 | 76,774 | 82,090 | 86,368 | 89,416 | 91,494 | 92,882 | 94,031 | 94,930 | |
70-74 | 50,261 | 53,108 | 55,538 | 59,237 | 63,903 | 68,123 | 72,699 | 77,119 | 80,895 | 84,099 | |
75-79 | 31,084 | 33,086 | 36,943 | 41,051 | 44,917 | 48,653 | 51,871 | 53,950 | 56,577 | 60,080 | |
80-84 | 20,631 | 21,446 | 22,486 | 24,248 | 26,118 | 27,951 | 29,948 | 33,151 | 36,237 | 39,037 | |
85-89 | 13,627 | 13,805 | 14,179 | 14,569 | 15,133 | 15,672 | 16,438 | 17,173 | 18,316 | 19,441 | |
90-99 | 8,071 | 8,449 | 8,878 | 9,320 | 9,539 | 9,806 | 10,077 | 10,356 | 10,512 | 10,760 | |
100+ | 241 | 258 | 271 | 289 | 303 | 316 | 336 | 349 | 370 | 388 | |
Total | 1,528.3 | 1,540.2 | 1,586.7 | 1,682.5 | 1,770.9 | 1,822.8 | 1,866.3 | 1,907.5 | 1,947.8 | 1,989.1 | |
Numbers may not add up due to rounding | |||||||||||
Average Age | 37.7 | 38.0 | 38.2 | 38.2 | 38.1 | 38.3 | 38.4 | 38.6 | 38.8 | 39.0 | |
* Estimate (no Civic Census) |
Numbers may not add up due to rounding
Table 3 - Calgary Economic Region (CER) Population Projection
FORECAST COMPLETED: June 2024
2019 | 2020* | 2021* | 2022* | 2023* | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Population (as of July 1) | 1,614.8 | 1,640.6 | 1,652.9 | 1,700.1 | 1,797.6 | 1,888.0 | 1,941.3 | 1,986.1 | 2,028.2 | 2,069.5 | 2,111.6 |
(July 1 - June 30) |
Total
Population Growth Rate 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Total Net Migration (July-June) | 20.7 | 18.7 | 6.6 | 39.4 | 89.9 | 81.5 | 43.6 | 35.2 | 32.7 | 32.0 | 33.1 |
Total Births (July-June) | 18.3 | 17.9 | 17.6 | 17.4 | 17.5 | 19.3 | 20.6 | 21.0 | 21.3 | 21.6 | 21.9 |
Total Deaths (July-June) | 8.0 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 12.9 |
Total Natural Increase (July-June) | 10.2 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 9.0 |
Population by 5-year Cohorts | 2019 | 2020* | 2021* | 2022* | 2023* | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0-4 | 96,364 | 93,623 | 93,208 | 94,254 | 96,678 | 98,444 | 100,805 | 103,630 | 107,099 | 109,516 | |
5-9 | 101,371 | 101,989 | 104,416 | 108,564 | 111,982 | 112,004 | 110,609 | 109,051 | 107,286 | 107,254 | |
10-14 | 101,895 | 103,328 | 105,967 | 109,746 | 113,465 | 115,526 | 118,024 | 120,066 | 121,283 | 121,952 | |
15-19 | 93,627 | 94,490 | 99,390 | 105,595 | 113,418 | 117,081 | 119,939 | 122,179 | 123,583 | 124,849 | |
20-24 | 100,521 | 99,743 | 103,129 | 111,346 | 121,406 | 125,153 | 126,991 | 129,216 | 131,768 | 134,605 | |
25-29 | 114,163 | 111,655 | 115,268 | 128,255 | 140,860 | 146,428 | 148,800 | 149,881 | 151,164 | 152,678 | |
30-34 | 134,616 | 132,097 | 134,533 | 146,580 | 155,664 | 158,612 | 161,905 | 165,442 | 168,610 | 171,715 | |
35-39 | 138,620 | 139,413 | 142,622 | 151,993 | 160,080 | 165,210 | 168,820 | 171,575 | 174,541 | 176,688 | |
40-44 | 124,748 | 127,819 | 132,946 | 142,961 | 151,674 | 157,946 | 162,607 | 166,168 | 169,058 | 172,574 | |
45-49 | 115,204 | 115,347 | 117,521 | 122,817 | 127,711 | 132,560 | 138,351 | 144,576 | 151,041 | 157,089 | |
50-54 | 104,076 | 106,454 | 109,333 | 113,128 | 114,455 | 116,142 | 117,446 | 119,832 | 123,108 | 127,611 | |
55-59 | 105,533 | 103,853 | 102,698 | 103,274 | 102,836 | 103,375 | 105,963 | 108,986 | 111,194 | 112,710 | |
60-64 | 97,167 | 98,831 | 100,770 | 103,730 | 105,156 | 104,956 | 103,722 | 102,283 | 101,397 | 101,215 | |
65-69 | 74,915 | 79,356 | 84,558 | 90,262 | 94,995 | 98,347 | 100,553 | 102,024 | 103,151 | 104,033 | |
70-74 | 56,072 | 59,233 | 61,779 | 65,679 | 70,800 | 75,564 | 80,550 | 85,302 | 89,418 | 92,801 | |
75-79 | 34,881 | 37,183 | 41,457 | 45,945 | 50,232 | 54,266 | 57,804 | 60,045 | 62,842 | 66,623 | |
80-84 | 22,893 | 23,864 | 25,100 | 27,127 | 29,218 | 31,254 | 33,555 | 37,137 | 40,556 | 43,668 | |
85-89 | 14,941 | 15,179 | 15,546 | 15,944 | 16,666 | 17,394 | 18,269 | 19,159 | 20,482 | 21,750 | |
90-99 | 9,169 | 9,137 | 9,578 | 10,077 | 10,371 | 10,691 | 11,014 | 11,312 | 11,501 | 11,820 | |
100+ | 272 | 276 | 291 | 303 | 319 | 334 | 357 | 372 | 392 | 414 | |
Total | 1,641.0 | 1,652.9 | 1,700.1 | 1,797.6 | 1,888.0 | 1,941.3 | 1,986.1 | 2,028.2 | 2,069.5 | 2,111.6 | |
Numbers may not add up due to rounding | |||||||||||
Average Age | 38.0 | 38.3 | 38.4 | 38.5 | 38.4 | 38.5 | 38.7 | 38.9 | 39.1 | 39.3 | |
* Estimate (no Civic Census) |
Numbers may not add up due to rounding.
Contact us
For general inquiries, please email: Corporate.Economics@calgary.ca