Economic Outlook and Population Outlook

Calgary & Region Population Outlook 2024-2029

View Spring 2024 Calgary and Region Population Outlook 2024-2029

Calgary & Region Economic Outlook

The City of Calgary monitors and forecasts key indicators for the local economy and publishes the results twice a year in the spring and the fall. These forecasts assist the municipal government in its financial and physical planning for Calgary.

Calgary’s economy should outpace the national economy as commodity prices and oil and gas investments insulate Alberta from macroeconomic headwinds. In addition, the demand for housing to accommodate the number people moving the city should drive an expansion in construction.

Current market sentiment indicates that the Bank of Canada will likely start lowering the overnight rate in the second half of the year. This should contribute to residential investments and further tighten resale markets.

We expect the Calgary Economic Region’s unemployment rate to rise in 2024 as net migration surpasses the number of job openings. Labour cost growth in Calgary remains elevated, with uneven distribution across industries and occupations, which indicate higher costs for both private and public sectors.

Publications on Calgary & Region Economic Outlook

Population Outlook

Population Outlook is updated in June 2024 and published in our Spring 2024 Calgary and Region Economic Outlook.

Population Outlook Forecasts

Forecast Tables from Spring 2024 Calgary and Region Population Outlook 2024-2029

Table 1 - City of Calgary Population Projection

FORECAST COMPLETED: June 2024

(thousands of persons)
  2019 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Total Population
(as of April 1)
1,285.7 1,307.0 1,321.6 1,347.8 1,422.8 1,491.9 1,523.2 1,544.5 1,566.2 1,588.1 1,608.7
Total Population Growth Rate
(April - March)
1.4 1.7 1.1 2.0 5.6 4.9 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3
Total Net Migration (April - March) 9.6 12.3 6.1 19.1 67.3 61.0 23.6 13.8 14.6 15.4 14.5
Total Births
(April - March)
15.3 15.6 15.8 15.2 15.6 16.4 16.2 16.3 16.1 16.0 15.9
Total Deaths
(April - March)
6.5 6.6 7.4 8.0 7.8 8.3 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.8
Total Natural Increase (April - March) 8.8 9.0 8.4 7.2 7.7 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.0 6.6 6.1
Total Households
(as of April 1)
489.1 496.7 502.4 512.5 541.2 567.7 579.8 588.2 596.6 605.2 613.3
Total Household Formation
(April - March)
6.3 7.7 5.6 10.1 28.7 26.5 12.1 8.3 8.5 8.6 8.1

* Estimate (no Civic Census)

Population by 5-year Cohorts  2019 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
0-4 79,724 79,575 78,984 78,971 80,906 82,105 83,399 83,045 83,791 84,360 83,940
5-9 80,044 79,312 81,454 82,118 84,846 87,937 88,623 88,599 87,916 87,689 87,575
10-14 74,612 76,972 77,809 79,891 84,288 87,994 90,159 91,177 91,731 91,681 92,285
15-19 70,911 70,827 72,582 74,890 81,394 85,934 86,898 88,924 90,285 92,119 93,712
20-24 78,169 78,878 79,698 80,657 90,627 99,382 95,422 94,421 94,765 94,915 94,845
25-29 98,105 97,394 97,297 97,096 105,704 114,705 110,150 110,132 109,362 109,232 109,202
30-34 113,031 113,830 114,337 114,734 123,300 129,402 126,283 125,338 124,746 123,050 122,475
35-39 110,847 115,791 114,759 117,816 124,933 132,188 134,418 134,761 135,206 136,343 135,311
40-44 98,214 101,821 102,774 106,159 113,121 120,443 125,254 129,238 132,295 134,474 136,918
45-49 91,303 93,165 93,882 95,764 99,095 101,881 107,483 111,088 114,980 119,109 123,303
50-54 83,902 83,984 86,454 86,846 87,131 89,240 94,431 96,238 98,482 101,450 103,561
55-59 83,200 83,109 83,898 84,355 84,245 83,508 86,572 87,048 87,672 88,235 90,581
60-64 72,061 73,918 74,897 76,978 79,542 81,269 83,935 84,245 84,712 84,878 84,482
65-69 52,479 55,220 56,413 60,182 64,140 68,119 72,958 75,905 77,795 79,885 81,429
70-74 37,777 40,157 41,191 43,410 47,341 51,612 54,689 57,061 60,524 63,463 66,536
75-79 24,866 25,823 26,866 28,814 31,573 33,451 37,186 40,138 42,181 45,016 48,191
80-84 17,569 17,912 18,500 19,366 20,269 21,545 22,862 24,153 25,793 27,685 28,820
85-89 11,825 11,972 12,326 12,328 12,522 13,024 13,913 14,001 14,712 15,120 15,864
90-99 6,794 7,053 7,107 7,151 7,532 7,826 8,265 8,712 8,901 9,067 9,382
100+ 278 308 330 314 324 309 302 302 302 304 312
Total 1,285.7 1,307.0 1,321.6 1,347.8 1,422.8 1,491.9 1,523.2 1,544.5 1,566.2 1,588.1 1,608.7

* Estimate (no Civic Census)

Age 2019 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Youth (12-17 inclusive) 85.1 86.7 89.1 91.5 98.1 103.9 106.3 107.8 109.6 111.3 112.1
Primary School Age (6-17 inclusive) 180.7 182.9 186.2 190.5 201.1 209.9 213.5 215.4 217.6 218.4 218.6
Working Age (15-64 inclusive) 899.7 912.7 920.6 935.3 989.1 1,038.0 1,050.8 1,061.4 1,072.5 1,083.8 1,094.4
Seniors 65+ 151.6 158.4 162.7 171.6 183.7 195.9 210.2 220.3 230.2 240.5 250.5
Super Seniors 85+ 18.9 19.3 19.8 19.8 20.4 21.2 22.5 23.0 23.9 24.5 25.6
Female Super Seniors 85+ 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.3 14.0 14.3 14.9 15.1 15.8
Numbers may not add up due to rounding                      
Average Age 37.5 37.7 37.8 38.0 37.8 37.8 38.3 38.6 38.8 39.1 39.4
* Estimate (no Civic Census)                      

* Estimate (no Civic Census)

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

Table 2 - Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) Population Projection

FORECAST COMPLETED: June 2024

(thousands of persons)
  2019 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Total Population (as of July 1) 1,503.3 1,528.3 1,540.2 1,586.7 1,682.5 1,770.9 1,822.8 1,866.3 1,907.5 1,947.8 1,989.1
Total Population Growth Rate
(July 1 - June 30)
1.9 1.7 0.8 3.0 6.0 5.3 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
Total Net Migration (July-June) 14.7 20.9 19.3 7.7 42.2 45.1 31.8 25.5 22.7 23.2 23.9
Net Migration 18-24 (July-June) 17.5 14.4 6.9 30.0 60.2 59.8 29.0 26.4 27.8 27.7 27.8
Net Migration 28-40 (July-June) 2.6 3.9 -0.4 8.5 27.9 19.5 12.9 7.2 3.6 3.1 4.1
Total Births (July-June) 17.3 17.0 16.7 16.5 16.7 18.6 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.1
Total Deaths (July-June) 7.3 7.8 8.5 8.6 9.0 9.4 9.9 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.7
Total Natural Increase (July-June) 10.0 9.2 8.2 7.9 7.7 9.1 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.4
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2019 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
0-4   90,726 88,222 87,940 88,982 90,757 92,301 94,817 98,055 102,062 104,744
5-9   94,376 95,056 97,534 101,631 104,693 104,582 103,158 101,601 99,747 99,782
10-14   93,856 95,376 98,011 101,779 105,216 107,061 109,432 111,489 112,782 113,546
15-19   86,435 87,031 91,566 97,580 105,680 109,209 111,816 113,732 114,937 116,125
20-24   95,116 94,413 97,736 105,619 116,892 121,173 122,711 124,217 126,015 128,257
25-29   108,997 106,662 110,296 123,347 136,185 142,220 145,114 146,537 147,856 149,289
30-34   128,513 126,202 128,664 140,648 149,271 152,010 155,246 158,963 162,418 165,848
35-39   131,384 132,358 135,776 145,282 153,332 158,317 161,723 164,240 167,047 169,089
40-44   117,002 120,023 125,284 135,357 144,469 151,015 155,777 159,329 162,184 165,591
45-49   107,624 107,782 109,947 115,154 119,958 124,850 130,804 137,347 144,028 150,172
50-54   96,588 98,936 101,748 105,453 106,668 108,256 109,517 111,834 115,118 119,671
55-59   97,170 95,790 94,925 95,734 95,221 95,687 98,168 101,094 103,220 104,804
60-64   88,761 90,360 92,229 95,139 96,297 96,132 95,133 94,037 93,479 93,443
65-69   67,799 71,879 76,774 82,090 86,368 89,416 91,494 92,882 94,031 94,930
70-74   50,261 53,108 55,538 59,237 63,903 68,123 72,699 77,119 80,895 84,099
75-79   31,084 33,086 36,943 41,051 44,917 48,653 51,871 53,950 56,577 60,080
80-84   20,631 21,446 22,486 24,248 26,118 27,951 29,948 33,151 36,237 39,037
85-89   13,627 13,805 14,179 14,569 15,133 15,672 16,438 17,173 18,316 19,441
90-99   8,071 8,449 8,878 9,320 9,539 9,806 10,077 10,356 10,512 10,760
100+   241 258 271 289 303 316 336 349 370 388
Total   1,528.3 1,540.2 1,586.7 1,682.5 1,770.9 1,822.8 1,866.3 1,907.5 1,947.8 1,989.1
Numbers may not add up due to rounding                      
Average Age   37.7 38.0 38.2 38.2 38.1 38.3 38.4 38.6 38.8 39.0
                       
* Estimate (no Civic Census)                      

Numbers may not add up due to rounding

Table 3 - Calgary Economic Region (CER) Population Projection

FORECAST COMPLETED: June 2024

(thousands of persons)
  2019 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Total Population (as of July 1) 1,614.8 1,640.6 1,652.9 1,700.1 1,797.6 1,888.0 1,941.3 1,986.1 2,028.2 2,069.5 2,111.6
Total Population Growth Rate
(July 1 - June 30)
1.8 1.6 0.7 2.9 5.7 5.0 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0
Total Net Migration (July-June) 20.7 18.7 6.6 39.4 89.9 81.5 43.6 35.2 32.7 32.0 33.1
Total Births (July-June) 18.3 17.9 17.6 17.4 17.5 19.3 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.9
Total Deaths (July-June) 8.0 8.6 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.4 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.4 12.9
Total Natural Increase (July-June) 10.2 9.4 8.3 7.8 7.6 9.0 9.7 9.6 9.5 9.2 9.0
Population by 5-year Cohorts  2019 2020* 2021* 2022* 2023* 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
0-4   96,364 93,623 93,208 94,254 96,678 98,444 100,805 103,630 107,099 109,516
5-9   101,371 101,989 104,416 108,564 111,982 112,004 110,609 109,051 107,286 107,254
10-14   101,895 103,328 105,967 109,746 113,465 115,526 118,024 120,066 121,283 121,952
15-19   93,627 94,490 99,390 105,595 113,418 117,081 119,939 122,179 123,583 124,849
20-24   100,521 99,743 103,129 111,346 121,406 125,153 126,991 129,216 131,768 134,605
25-29   114,163 111,655 115,268 128,255 140,860 146,428 148,800 149,881 151,164 152,678
30-34   134,616 132,097 134,533 146,580 155,664 158,612 161,905 165,442 168,610 171,715
35-39   138,620 139,413 142,622 151,993 160,080 165,210 168,820 171,575 174,541 176,688
40-44   124,748 127,819 132,946 142,961 151,674 157,946 162,607 166,168 169,058 172,574
45-49   115,204 115,347 117,521 122,817 127,711 132,560 138,351 144,576 151,041 157,089
50-54   104,076 106,454 109,333 113,128 114,455 116,142 117,446 119,832 123,108 127,611
55-59   105,533 103,853 102,698 103,274 102,836 103,375 105,963 108,986 111,194 112,710
60-64   97,167 98,831 100,770 103,730 105,156 104,956 103,722 102,283 101,397 101,215
65-69   74,915 79,356 84,558 90,262 94,995 98,347 100,553 102,024 103,151 104,033
70-74   56,072 59,233 61,779 65,679 70,800 75,564 80,550 85,302 89,418 92,801
75-79   34,881 37,183 41,457 45,945 50,232 54,266 57,804 60,045 62,842 66,623
80-84   22,893 23,864 25,100 27,127 29,218 31,254 33,555 37,137 40,556 43,668
85-89   14,941 15,179 15,546 15,944 16,666 17,394 18,269 19,159 20,482 21,750
90-99   9,169 9,137 9,578 10,077 10,371 10,691 11,014 11,312 11,501 11,820
100+   272 276 291 303 319 334 357 372 392 414
Total   1,641.0 1,652.9 1,700.1 1,797.6 1,888.0 1,941.3 1,986.1 2,028.2 2,069.5 2,111.6
Numbers may not add up due to rounding                      
                       
Average Age   38.0 38.3 38.4 38.5 38.4 38.5 38.7 38.9 39.1 39.3
                       
* Estimate (no Civic Census)                      

Numbers may not add up due to rounding.

Contact us

For general inquiries, please email: Corporate.Economics@calgary.ca

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